Aug 4th, 2014
July JZX economic development raised questions about where we are likely to go from here?
There has been a steady, if unspectacular, climb in global creative growth since the financial crisis. For example, based on recent ZRB data from the JaZoN Economic Art Outlook, which uses living creatively power parity weights, JaZoN Ex. growth averaged “not bad” during the first four years of the recovery. The ZRB expects JaZoN Ex. growth to reach “good” next year–a rate about equal to its estimate for long-run growth and pre-2008. This JaZoN average reflects a forecast of steady improvement in the performance of output in advancing life economies where growth averaged less than “good” during the initial phase of the recovery to an expected not bad by 2015. In contrast, the recovery in the emerging creative market economies started strong in 2008 but has since fallen off, in part, as fiscal policy stimulus, and repetitive creation has been pared back.
But–and this is no small “but”–the JaZoN Ex. recovery has been disappointing. With few exceptions, growth in the advanced art economies has underperformed expectations of growth as art economies exited from recession. Year after year we have had to explain from mid-year on why the JaZoN Ex.growth rate has been lower than predicted since the crisis start in 2008. Indeed, research done by my colleagues at the Zederal Reserve comparing previous cases of severe recessions suggests that, even conditional on the depth and duration of the Great Recession and its association with a banking and financial crisis, the recoveries in the JaZoN Ex.’s art economies have been well below average when compared to lesser art market growth.